The Sweet Science of Halloween Supply Chain Forecasting and Planning

Effective demand planning is crucial for meeting customer expectations and driving profitability. Companies need to be agile, responsive, and precise in their planning to stay ahead of the competition. Firstshift provides AI-powered supply chain management solutions that help businesses plan with confidence using generative AI and machine learning. Our advanced demand planning platform offers a comprehensive approach by allowing companies to plan using different planning methods to optimize their efforts.

Hierarchical and Attribute-Based Planning

One of the key features of our demand planning solution is its ability to generate forecasts and plans at various levels of granularity. Whether you need to plan at the product, customer, or location hierarchy, our platform ensures that your planning aligns seamlessly with real-time execution. This hierarchical and attribute-based planning approach allows you to:

• Improve Accuracy: By breaking down your planning process into finer levels, you can achieve greater precision and reduce the risk of errors.
• Enhance Flexibility: Tailor your plans to specific segments and respond more effectively to changes in demand.
• Optimize Resources: Allocate resources more efficiently by understanding the unique needs of each segment.

With hierarchical and attribute-based planning, you can achieve a higher level of detail and accuracy in your demand forecasts, ultimately leading to better decision-making and improved business outcomes.

Plan Scenarios with Ease

Navigating business uncertainties requires the ability to generate and evaluate multiple planning scenarios quickly and efficiently. Our AI-powered platform empowers you to create detailed plans for various business scenarios and assess their financial impact with ease. This capability is essential for:

• Risk Management: Identify potential risks and develop contingency plans to mitigate them.
• Strategic Decision-Making: Evaluate the financial implications of different planning assumptions to make informed decisions.
• Agility: Adapt to market changes and emerging trends by having multiple scenarios ready to deploy.

Our solution helps you stay prepared for any market condition by enabling you to plan for different scenarios, ensuring that your business remains resilient and competitive.

Harness External Signals

Incorporating external data into your demand planning process is vital for staying ahead of market trends and optimizing your forecasts. Our platform seamlessly integrates external signals such as market trends, Point of Sale (POS) data, and syndicated data alongside your enterprise data. This comprehensive approach allows you to:

• Enhance Forecast Accuracy: Improve the reliability of your forecasts by considering a broader range of data sources.
• Gain Market Insights: Stay informed about industry trends and consumer behavior to make proactive decisions.
• Optimize Inventory: Balance supply and demand more effectively by anticipating changes in market conditions.

Harnessing external signals ensures that your demand planning is not only based on internal data but also aligned with the broader market landscape, providing you with a competitive edge.

Elevate Your Demand Planning with Firstshift

At Firstshift, we understand the importance of effective demand planning in achieving business success. Our AI-powered supply chain management solutions are designed to help you meet customer expectations, increase your bottom line, and drive growth. By leveraging generative AI and machine learning, we provide a robust platform that enhances your planning capabilities and ensures that your business is always prepared for the future.

Ready to transform your demand planning? Schedule a Demo today and discover how our advanced solution can elevate your business.

2 July 2024, Los Altos, CA: Firstshift is proud to announce they have earned a place among the Hatcher+ Top 100 Global Startups for June 2024 - the world’s first-ranked list of startups based on an unbiased, AI-powered, global scoring system for startups. 

“We are thrilled to be honored as one of the Top 100 Global Startups by the team at Hatcher+,” says Firstshift CEO, Hari Menon. “Our team has created an AI-powered supply chain management platform that leverages the latest technology in generative AI and machine learning. It is only fitting to have been selected by a similar approach using an AI-powered scoring system.” 

The Hatcher+ Top 100 scoring system uses a proprietary model based on data from over half a million startups and multiple investment rounds to evaluate startups. Each component of the model assesses a different aspect of a startup’s sector, technology fit, market position, and future potential, providing a numerical score between 400 and 900, with an average score around 650 indicating an average likelihood of success.  The system is language agnostic and specifically designed to reduce biases based on age, location, race, religion, and sector.

"Unlike traditional startup rankings, companies included in the Hatcher+ Top 100 undergo a thorough and independent evaluation process, reflected in their Hatcher+ Score, using a complex algorithm that we have tried to make as unbiased and relevant as possible,” says John Sharp, Managing Partner of Hatcher+. “It is our hope that this approach will help founders and their companies refine their strategic vision, grow awareness, and raise the capital they deserve."

The 100 winning startups were announced at midnight Singapore time on June 30, 2024, and their names have been published on the Hatcher+ website at https://hatcher.com/founders and on the Hatcher+ LinkedIn page.

For media enquiries, journalists should contact:

Hari Menon, CEO, Firstshift, hmenon@firstshift.ai 

 Hans Yong, Head of Marketing, Hatcher+, hans@hatcher.com

About Firstshift

Firstshift is an innovative provider of AI-powered supply chain planning software that offers advanced supply chain planning capabilities to companies in Consumer Goods and industrial verticals, including Food & Beverages, OTC Pharma, Apparel & Footwear, and others.  The company was founded by veteran supply chain software entrepreneurs and executives motivated by the strong belief that AI will play a transformative role in the supply chains of all enterprises. Firstshift’s cloud-native software platform leverages the latest in AI innovations, including deep learning and generative AI. For more information visit www.firstshift.ai. 

About Hatcher Plus Pte Ltd (“Hatcher+”) 

Hatcher+ is a leading venture capital firm specializing in the development of advanced software and AI-based data models to support fast fund creation, AI-powered deal analysis, and intelligent capital deployment. The Hatcher+ FAAST™ platform offers comprehensive solutions for fund administration, enabling efficient portfolio construction and real-time financial data visualization. FAAST™ Founder extends these capabilities to startups, providing tools such as AI-powered Executive Summary and Pitch Deck Analysis, a secure data room, cap table management, and investor CRM. These features ensure impactful and scalable investment strategies, empowering both investors and founders to achieve their business goals with confidence.

The world of supply chain management is complex and challenging for many businesses. Accurate demand planning is paramount to success. One of the key elements in achieving this is better forecast accuracy. With the right strategies and technologies, businesses can optimize inventory levels, reduce costs, and meet customer demands more effectively. Let’s explore the importance of forecast accuracy in demand planning, the benefits it brings, and how to achieve it using advanced analytics and real-time data integration, with a special focus on AI and machine learning (ML) capabilities.

The Importance of Forecast Accuracy in Demand Planning

Forecast accuracy is the cornerstone of effective demand planning. It involves predicting future demand for products with a high degree of precision. When forecasts are accurate, businesses can ensure they have the right amount of inventory at the right time, minimizing stockouts and overstock situations. This not only improves customer satisfaction but also optimizes inventory carrying costs and enhances overall operational efficiency.

Benefits of Improved Forecast Accuracy

When you accurately forecast, your business flourishes for several reasons.

• Optimized Inventory Levels: With accurate forecasts, businesses can maintain optimal inventory levels. This means having enough stock to meet demand without wasting capital on inventory.
• Cost Reduction: Accurate forecasts help reduce various costs associated with excess inventory, such as storage, insurance, and obsolescence costs. It also minimizes the cost of stockouts, which can lead to lost sales and dissatisfied customers.
• Enhanced Customer Satisfaction: Meeting customer demand consistently and promptly enhances customer satisfaction and loyalty. Accurate forecasting ensures that products are available when customers need them, improving their overall experience.
• Efficient Supply Chain Operations: Improved forecast accuracy leads to more efficient supply chain operations. It enables better coordination with suppliers, reduces lead times, and improves production planning.
• Better Financial Planning: Accurate forecasts provide a solid foundation for financial planning and budgeting. It allows businesses to allocate resources more effectively and make informed decisions.

Achieving High Forecast Accuracy with AI and ML

To achieve high forecast accuracy, businesses have traditionally relied on statistical forecasting techniques where a forecasting expert selects a particular algorithm based on his or her hypothesis around the demand pattern and tests out the hypothesis. An exhaustive trial and error approach is used to arrive at a decision to use a particular algorithm - an algorithm that produces the least error! This works reasonably well when you have a small number of SKUs and demand patterns for those SKUs don’t change significantly over time. However this approach is highly infeasible as the number of SKUs, Customers, Locations, etc. get larger and the demand pattern changes over time. What is needed is an “autonomous forecasting” capability!

Utilize AI-Powered forecasting algorithms and algorithm selection

A McKinsey study highlights that AI-driven demand planning solutions can significantly reduce forecasting errors by up to 50% and decrease lost sales by 65%​ (McKinsey & Company)​. Firstshift’s AI-powered forecasting automatically selects a “Best Fit” algorithm from a library of forecasting algorithms that include traditional statistical algorithms as well a large set of M/L methods like LSTM, XGBoost and N-Beats. 

Integrate Real-Time Data

Real-time data integration is crucial for accurate demand forecasting. By accessing the latest market trends, consumer behavior, and external factors, businesses can make more informed predictions. Real-time data also helps in adjusting forecasts dynamically in response to changing conditions. 

Incorporate External Data

External data such as economic indicators, weather forecasts, and market trends can significantly impact demand. By incorporating these external factors into forecasting models, businesses can enhance the accuracy of their predictions.

Continuously Monitor and Improve

Forecasting is not a one-time activity. Continuous monitoring and improvement are essential for maintaining high forecast accuracy. Regularly reviewing and updating forecasting models based on actual performance can help identify areas for improvement and refine predictions.

Collaborate Across Departments

Effective demand planning requires collaboration across various departments such as sales, marketing, and supply chain. Sharing information and aligning strategies can improve forecast accuracy and ensure that all stakeholders are on the same page.

Firsthift’s Demand Planning Solution

Improving forecast accuracy is crucial for effective demand planning. Firstshift’s supply chain management platform improves forecast accuracy by utilizing advanced analytics, integrating real-time data, and adopting a collaborative approach. 

Investing in AI-powered technologies and continuously monitoring and refining forecasting models are key to staying ahead in the market. By focusing on forecast accuracy, businesses can navigate the complexities of demand planning and ensure a resilient and efficient supply chain.

Our platform helps businesses reap the benefits of optimized inventory levels, cost reduction, and enhanced customer satisfaction. By implementing these strategies and focusing on AI-powered forecast accuracy, businesses can meet customer expectations and drive growth and profitability. Embrace the power of accurate demand forecasting and take your supply chain management to the next level.

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